Fine for the FX Banks (Pun Intended)

The 5 banks (RBS, Barclays, JPMorgan, Citi and UBS) were fined about $5.7 billion and all but UBS plead guilty to criminal charges (UBS gets off because they were the first to provide information on the scandal to regulators). Although having the banks plead guilty to criminal charges makes the regulators appear to be tough (more than just fines), the truth is that much of that is just appearances, as the SEC has already provided the banks with waivers. These waivers will allow the banks to continue in lines of business for which a felony conviction would typically bar them, such as operating as a fiduciary, including managing client assets. With so many banks pleading guilty simultaneously, the sting to any individual bank is lessened. And as the negotiations continued, the banks added to their reserves for these fines so that there will not be large one-time hits to earnings.

Of course the fines are a lot of money, but overall we have little reason to expect much negative impact to these banks from either the fines or the criminal charges. Our hope is that after these many scandals the banks, saddled with additional regulations and compliance costs, and hopefully having learned a lesson, will concentrate on their ethics. As it relates to the London Fix which was the start of all this, most banks are now earning their profits by charging customers either a fee or a bid offer spread, a much more transparent and ethical model than collusion, and hopefully a hint of a new direction.

6 Month Delay for FX Benchmark Fix Lawsuit

Reuters reported the stay in the case involving the antitrust class action against a dozen FX banks. As we reported in February, the DOJ requested a stay due to grand jury investigations ongoing in criminal cases being brought by the DOJ. The plaintiffs have gone along with the stay, however they have been granted exceptions that should allow them to continue to make their case during this period. These exceptions allow them to use discovery to access trade data (perhaps the most important item in order to estimate damages) and some ability to depose witnesses (although the limitations are unknown).

A hearing is scheduled in the case for March 26.

DOJ Trying to Delay FX Benchmark Fix Case

The court handling the FX benchmark antitrust case released a letter last week from the Department of Justice asking for a limited stay in the discovery phase of this case citing a grand jury investigation that is currently under way. After an initial six month stay the DOJ would then decide if a longer stay is required. The court gave both sides in the case until Friday to respond to the DOJ's request.

One would expect the plaintiffs view to be along the justice delayed is justice denied theme. The banks' position may not be as clear. Although delaying a case with a foreseen bad outcome may generally be preferable, they would also need to weigh how a quicker trial here might affect the DOJ's case, which apparently is against several bank employees involved with the fix. Different banks may have different views. An additional layer of complexity is due to additional reported probes by the DOJ into the FX practices of certain banks, including in FX structured products, and the affect on these from a delay.

Until discovery of bank documents and depositions of bank employees occurs, a more clear picture of the potential size of damages to the banks cannot be determined.

FX Manipulation Lawsuit Tsunami at Banks' Doorstep

First, about three weeks ago, JPMorgan settled an FX manipulation lawsuit for a reported $100 million. Now, Reuters reports that a judge allowed the investor plaintiffs' case to go forward to trial over the banks' objections. These included that there was a lack of evidence and that a prior LIBOR case alleging antitrust abuses was thrown out of court.

These two events alone should bring forth a barrage of suits as success seems more probable. In addition, now that this trial can go forward, the banks' position looks to be hurt by two factors.

First, depositions can now be taken, which may provide additional evidence of wrongdoing (several of the banks have already been fined by regulators following employee interviews). Second, a problem in suing to date has been attempting to prove wrongdoing and antitrust behavior. There is a lack of data on trades executed by banks on specific dates in specific currencies. Trade data released by banks during the discovery process may make the plaintiffs' calculation of any damages much easier, rather than relying upon models of what may have been manipulation based solely upon price movements.

While lawsuits from investors (money managers, pensions funds, etc.)and corporations are to be expected, many other groups impacted by currency rates can be expected as well. As an example,a few weeks ago we reported on British farmers that may have been affected by the conversion of subsidies from euro to British pounds.

Will the Banks be Hit by a Wave of FX Manipulation Lawsuits?

An article in yesterday's Telegraph reports that UK farmers were hurt by the FX benchmark rigging scandal, as there is a 2.6 billion pound EU subsidy that first has to be converted from euros before paid to British farmers. An unclear reference in the article cites one day's manipulation that cost the farmers 16 million pounds in one year.

Regardless of the details here, what struck us at FinancialPests, was the wide range of potential suits with which the banks could be hit. Beyond all of the financial players, who we would expect to be more likely to file suits now that JPMorgan has settled one US suit, there may be many others as well. UK farmers would not have been on our radar screen as potential litigants(although no suit was mentioned in the article). Europe is, of course, less litigious than the US, and slower to file suits, but this reinforced to us that potentially, there may be a landslide of suits filed around the world during 2015.

JPMorgan Settles FX Benchmark Manipulation Lawsuit

Reuters reports that JPMorgan settled an antitrust lawsuit which accused 12 banks of rigging the FX markets' benchmark rates. No other bank has commented or settled as of yet, and the terms of the settlement were not disclosed. Two other lawsuits remain.

This follows the fines imposed by certain regulators on several banks late last year on the same matter. Once regulators found wrongdoing, even if only poor oversight of traders, it becomes more difficult for the banks to defend themselves. The lawsuit depended on whether the banks' behavior was uncompetitive in nature. Regulator findings regarding collusive behavior among bank traders on chat room and other electronic media may have increased the pressure on banks for settlements.

It appears reasonable to expect some of the other banks to settle in the near future. Additionally, all of the US and international regulators have not yet weighed in, and criminal charges may be coming as well, although any such charges may be limited to individual bank traders rather than the banks themselves.

What may be Coming Next in the FX Benchmark Story?

The big news in November was the settlement between a number of banks and regulators. However, not all of the large FX banks have reached settlements and not all of the major regulators were involved either.

Some recent related events:

1) Last week, New York's Superintendent of Financial Services was reported by Bloomberg to have evidence that Deutsche and Barclays had used algorithms on each of their single dealer platforms to manipulate FX rates. No details are known, but we assume that whether manipulation is involved will be as complex an issue as algorithms are themselves. Such charges go well beyond the fix, which to date has only been determined to have been manipulated by a few traders, occurring only due to poor oversight and management on the part of the banks. Last month's settlement did not include this New York regulator, as apparently the regulator was seeking tougher sanctions, including the installation of monitors on the fx desk of certain banks. What they uncover in this newly reported line of investigation will certainly be interesting and have potentially even larger ramifications for the banks.

2) As a result of their FX investigations, both the DOJ and the UK's FCA are expected to bring criminal charges against both banks and individuals, the DOJ as soon as early next year. The DOJ has already been interviewing traders in London. As far as civil litigation, so far there have been 2 antitrust class action lawsuits filed in the US.

3) WM Reuters, the company that manages the fix process planned to make changes (primarily widening the window to 5 minutes and adding Thomson Reuters rates for major currencies) to the fix as of December 15, but has now delayed implementation until at least February 2015. The company says that the delay is at the request of some customers who need more time to prepare.