Wednesday, December 17, 2014

What may be Coming Next in the FX Benchmark Story?

The big news in November was the settlement between a number of banks and regulators. However, not all of the large FX banks have reached settlements and not all of the major regulators were involved either.

Some recent related events:

1) Last week, New York's Superintendent of Financial Services was reported by Bloomberg to have evidence that Deutsche and Barclays had used algorithms on each of their single dealer platforms to manipulate FX rates. No details are known, but we assume that whether manipulation is involved will be as complex an issue as algorithms are themselves. Such charges go well beyond the fix, which to date has only been determined to have been manipulated by a few traders, occurring only due to poor oversight and management on the part of the banks. Last month's settlement did not include this New York regulator, as apparently the regulator was seeking tougher sanctions, including the installation of monitors on the fx desk of certain banks. What they uncover in this newly reported line of investigation will certainly be interesting and have potentially even larger ramifications for the banks.

2) As a result of their FX investigations, both the DOJ and the UK's FCA are expected to bring criminal charges against both banks and individuals, the DOJ as soon as early next year. The DOJ has already been interviewing traders in London. As far as civil litigation, so far there have been 2 antitrust class action lawsuits filed in the US.

3) WM Reuters, the company that manages the fix process planned to make changes (primarily widening the window to 5 minutes and adding Thomson Reuters rates for major currencies) to the fix as of December 15, but has now delayed implementation until at least February 2015. The company says that the delay is at the request of some customers who need more time to prepare.





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