What Does the New Treasury Currency Watch List Mean?

A recent US law requires the Treasury to publish an annual list of countries that may be manipulating their currency. This first list does not name any country as a manipulator but mentions China, Germany, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan as countries that exceed one or two of the three criteria for being named as such -

1) an annual bilateral trade surplus with the US exceeding $20 billion
2) a current account surplus exceeding 3% of GDP
3) FX market interventions exceeding 2% of GDP in a given year

Prior Treasury reports on currency manipulation were based upon fuzzy guidelines and the intention of the new rules is to hold Treasury to using specific financial/economic data with the intent of more frequent designations of manipulation (the most recent Treasury designation was of China in 1994).

Will these new rules lead to more currency manipulation designations? Our answer is probably not. While the first two metrics are fairly clear the third is not always. FX market interventions are not necessarily publicized (even if highly suspected). As well, in a time of quantitative easing (QE), it is far from clear if selling one's currency and buying others is the only way to intervene in currency markets. It is often suspected that at least part of the reasons for QE, even if unmentioned publicly, is to weaken the local currency. As such, rules focusing on direct interventions may miss, or cause the increased use of, indirect currency interventions.